Katyń nominated for the Academy Awards

I was very stunned when this happened around 2 weeks ago. Katyń had been shortlisted for the nomination, whilst 4 months, 3 weeks and 2 days and Persepolis (both of which had had far more attention internationally) were not.
But now that the nominations for best foreign picture have been announced, it's quite obvious what the Academy is doing - politics and war seem to be the main themes they were looking for. Check out the nomination list:

Beaufort (Israel)
A war film which takes place in 2000 as the Israeli army is withdrawing from Lebanon.


The Counterfeiters (Austria)
It takes place in the Sachsenhausen concentration camp, based on a true story.


Katyń (Poland)
An account of the events surrounding the 1940 massacre of captured Polish army officers.


Mongol (Kazakhstan)
It's the story of Genghis Khan. It doesn't sound political, but I'm wondering if there might be some themes like that in there. It's certainly a little weird that a famous Russian director had to go to Kazakhstan to get his movie financed. Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the fact that Genghis Khan also conquered a lot of Russia...


12 (Russia)
Twelve Russian jurors decide the fate of a young Chechen accused of murdering his adoptive Russian father.


In the company of 4 months, 3 weeks and 2 days or Persepolis, I'd say Katyń wouldn't have any chance of winning whatsoever. But in this company I think it has a very large one. Nor am I alone in this feeling - apparently that's how the bookies have it as well.
There's also an interesting article in the Economist weighing Katyń's chances. The main argument they have against it is that it's done from a very Polish point of view and some things in the film might not be clear to foreigners. On the other hand they also write:
Astonishingly, some in Russia are now reviving the lie that the murderers at Katyn were not by the NKVD, but the Nazis. That was maintained during the communist era, but only by punishing savagely those who tried to tell the truth. Last year, as Mr Wajda's film opened in Poland, a commentary in a Russian government newspaper, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, dismissed the evidence of Soviet involvement in Katyn as “unreliable”. An Oscar would be a good answer to that.